EUROPE’S ONE-HORSE RACE HAS FOUR CONTENDERS?

 WHY ONE-HORSE RACE? 

Ligue 1, the premier football league of France, has been called ‘Farmer’s league’ or ‘One-Horse Race’ for the longest period of time. This edge of mockery stems from the joke that players take up farming as a day job and football as a night job, hinting that their level of competitiveness is much lower than players across other elite European football leagues. It’s also called ‘One-Horse Race’ because the history of the league shows eras of dominance by one team, before their eventual decline.

In the recent years, there has been one club from the south-west of the French capital that has been ruthlessly dominating the league. Paris Saint-Germain FC, or PSG, have been the frontrunners, title contenders and heavyweights in every season of the league since 2011. A change of ownership to Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, ruler of Qatar, through state-owned shareholding organization Qatar Sports Investments has seen a major inflow of resources for PSG to establish themselves as the financial heavyweights. The club has spent over a billion euros on top players, with Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Thiago Silva and Edinson Cavani being the prominent ones. It is thus a norm to expect PSG to excel in almost every competition they play in. Barring the 2016-17 season, PSG have won all Ligue 1 titles from 2012-13 to 2019-20. One begs to ask - what changed this season?

A CHANGE OF WIND IN 2021?

The 2020-21 season, as of March 2021, has seen 30 games played by all teams before international break for World cup qualifiers. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the calendar for professional football saw matches every 3-4 days and players shouldering immense workload. Thus, teams who had additional competitions in Europe were actually suffering from this change, and teams who had only one competition could focus all their efforts on it. Despite this, PSG still managed to lead the table with a total of 63 points. However, they are level on points with LOSC Lille. In 3rd place, Olympique Lyonnais, or Lyon, stand with 60 points and 4th place goes to AS Monaco with 59 points. The rest of the teams are way behind these four, with Lens in 5th place with 48 points. Thus, it is a relatively easy prediction that the top four will remain the same, barring an unexpected and uncharacteristic collapse.

This season, PSG have a very uncharacteristic seven losses, which stopped them from running away with the league. Lille and Lyon have been helped by PSG’s losses, because their performances at this stage is similar to the one in 2018-19, the last full season of the league (2019-20 season was prematurely terminated due to the Covid-19 pandemic). Monaco had a shocker of a season in 2018-19, having to battle relegation and surviving with 36 points, only two points above the drop zone. For them, this season has been nothing short of a resounding success, as they are only four points off the top of the table.

WHAT DOES REMAINDER OF THE SEASON HOLD?

PSG winning a very crucial game against Lyon and Lille losing to Nimes just before the international break, means temporary comfort for the former, but this title race is far from over. They have only Lille from the top four to play, but a mammoth Champions League Quarter Final against Bayern Munich awaits them. A laser like focus on the Champions League along with their stuttering form this season, could see them deviate from the league, resulting in the title slip away from their hands.

Lille have two key matches against PSG and Lyon, but no other competitions to play. The outcome of their season depends more on their performance in these 2 matches, rather than any of their remaining fixtures. If they win those matches, the momentum should be enough to see them win the league 10 years since they last won it in 2010-11. 

Similarly, Lyon have important fixtures against Lille and Monaco, and the French Cup competition’s Round of 16 to play. With French cup being their potential chance of silverware this season, the added weight of that could affect their performance. If they win the key fixtures, and have some good fortunes come their way, Lyon could emerge victorious in the league for the first time since 2007-08.

AS Monaco have relatively a better situation amongst the top four. With no European competition in their calendar, their focus is completely on domestic competitions. They have only Lyon to play from the top four and the French Cup Round of 16. Despite another Cup to play, Monaco have the benefit of playing 4 teams from the bottom half of the table in their remaining Ligue 1 fixtures. This sets up the stage perfectly for a spirited title run from this team, with the hopes of emulating the 2016-17 title winning season. 

EUROPE’S MOST EXCITING TITLE RACE?

Elsewhere in Europe, the Serie A in Italy looks to be done with Inter Milan leading city rivals AC Milan by 6 points and a game in hand. The Bundesliga in Germany has Bayern Munich on course for a ninth consecutive title, with only an unlikely collapse preventing them from winning. The Premier League belongs to Manchester City this season after their remarkable season leaving them 14 points clear at the top. Only La Liga appears to have a similar excitement to Ligue 1 this season, with Atletico Madrid dropping points in recent matches to reduce their lead to 4 points at the top. However, nothing is as competitive as the French league at the moment. All in all, we could be witnessing the most exciting title race from the most unexpected source – Ligue 1! 

WRITER’S PICK

The writer being a supporter of the underdogs and an ardent Chelsea fan, supports Cesc Fabregas and believes that this Monaco team could go all the way and win the French league. Fingers crossed!